The two-child limit: A policy that fails, even on its own terms

Between 2020 and 2025, researchers from the London School of Economics and Political Science, Oxford and York conducted what remains the largest independent study into the impact of the two-child limit and benefit cap on families with three or more children. Funded by the Nuffield Foundation, this mixed-methods research directly interrogates whether and to what extent the policies met their intended outcomes, while also exploring their wider impacts. The project combined quantitative analyses using quasi-experimental methods with in-depth qualitative longitudinal research, following families affected by one or both policies over three years. Here, for the first time, we collate key findings in relation to the two-child limit, drawing on our published work in peer-reviewed journals.

The headline finding is this: the two-child limit did not meet either of its original stated objectives. It neither substantively affected fertility rates among lower-income households nor supported transitions into employment. In the absence of these intended effects, the policy instead produces higher child poverty rates, with clear indications that this harms the mental health of mothers and negatively impacts children in affected households. Notably, we also conducted comparative analysis which situated the two-child limit in international perspective, and found no other country in Europe which limited means-tested support to just two children in a household.